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Cohort Analysis of Incidence/Mortality of Liver Cancer in Japan through Logistic Curve Fitting

  • Okamoto, Etsuji (National Institute of Public Health)
  • Published : 2013.10.30

Abstract

Incidence/mortality of liver cancer follow logistic curves because there is a limit reflecting the prevalence of hepatitis virus carriers in the cohort. The author fitted logistic curves to incidence/mortality data covering the nine five-year cohorts born in 1911-1955 of both sexes. Goodness-of-fit of logistic curves was sufficiently precise to be used for future predictions. Younger cohorts born in 1936 or later were predicted to show constant decline in incidence/mortality in the future. The male cohort born in 1931-35 showed an elevated incidence/mortality of liver cancer early in their lives supporting the previous claim that this particular cohort had suffered massive HCV infection due to nation-wide drug abuse in the 1950s. Declining case-fatality observed in younger cohorts suggested improved treatment of liver cancer. This study demonstrated that incidence/mortality of liver cancer follow logistic curves and fitted logistic formulae can be used for future prediction. Given the predicted decline of incidence/mortality in younger cohorts, liver cancer is likely to be lost to history in the not-so-distant future.

Keywords

Liver cancer;incidence;mortality;cohort analysis;logistic curve

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  2. Mortality of Major Cancers in Guangxi, China: Sex, Age and Geographical Differences from 1971 and 2005 vol.15, pp.4, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.4.1567