Estimation of Esophageal Cancer Incidence in Tehran by Log-linear Method using Population-based Cancer Registry Data

  • Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza (Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shaheed Beheshti University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Ahmadi-Jouibari, Toraj (Clinical Research Development Center, Imam Khomeini Hospital) ;
  • Najafi, Farid (Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Mehrabi, Yadollah (Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shaheed Beheshti University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Aghaei, Abbas (Clinical Research Development Center, Imam Khomeini Hospital)
  • Published : 2013.09.30


Background: Having knowledge or estimation of cancer incidence is necessary for planning and implementation of any cancer prevention and control programs. Population-based registries provide valuable information to achieve these objectives but require extra techniques to estimate the incidence rate. The present study aimed to estimate the esophageal cancer incidence using a log-linear method based on Tehran population-based cancer registry data. Materials and Methods: New cases of esophageal cancer reported by three sources of pathology reports, medical records, and death certificates to Tehran Metropolitan Area Cancer Registry Center during 2002-2006 were entered into the study and the incidence rate was estimated based on log-linear models. We used Akaike statistics to select the best-fit model. Results: During 2002-2006, 1,458 new cases of esophageal cancer were reported by the mentioned sources to the population-based cancer registry. Based on the reported cases, cancer incidence was 4.5 per 100,000 population and this was estimated to be 10.5 per 100,000 by the log-linear method. Conclusions: Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that an estimated incidence for 2004 of 8.3 per 100,000 population could be a good benchmark for the incidence of esophageal cancer in the population of Tehran metropolis.


Incidence estimation;log-linear;esophageal cancer;cancer registration;Akaike statistics


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