Prediction of Time to Recurrence and Influencing Factors for Gastric Cancer in Iran

  • Roshanaei, Ghodratollah (Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Ghannad, Masoud Sabouri (Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Safari, Maliheh (Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Sadighi, Sanambar (Department of Medical Oncology, Cancer Research Center, Cancer Institute, Imam Khomeini Hospital)
  • Published : 2012.06.30


Background: The patterns of gastric cancer recurrence vary across societies. We designed the current study in an attempt to evaluate and reveal the outbreak of the recurrence patterns of gastric cancer and also prediction of time to recurrence and its effected factors in Iran. Materials and Methods: This research was performed from March 2003 to February 2007. Demographic characteristics, clinical and pathological diagnosis and classification including pathologic stage, tumor grade, tumor site and tumor size in of patients with GC recurrent were collected from patients' data files. To evaluate of factors affected on the relapse of the GC patients, gender, age at diagnosis, treatment type and Hgb were included in the research. Data were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and logistic regression models. Results: After treatment, 82 patients suffered recurrence, 42, 33 and 17 by the ends of first, second and third years. The mean ( SD) and median ( IQR) time to recurrence in patients with GC were 25.5 (20.6-30.1) and 21.5 (15.6-27.1) months, respectively. The results of multivariate analysis logistic regression showed that only pathologic stage, tumor grade and tumor site significantly affected the recurrence. Conclusions: We found that pathologic stage, tumor grade and tumor site significantly affect on the recurrence of GC which has a high positive prognostic value and might be functional for better follow-up and selecting the patients at risk. We also showed time to recurrence to be an important factor for follow-up of patients.


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