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Forecasting biomass and recruits by age-structured spawner-recruit model incorporating environmental variables

환경요인을 결합한 연령구조 재생산모델에 의한 자원량 및 가입량 예측

  • Lee, Jae Bong (Dokdo Fisheries Research Center, NFRDI) ;
  • Lee, Dong Woo (Fisheries Resources Management Division, National Fisheries Research & Development Institute) ;
  • Choi, Ilsu (Department of Statistics, Chonnam National University) ;
  • Zhang, Chang Ik (Department of Marine Production System Management, Pukyong National University)
  • 이재봉 (국립수산과학원 동해수산연구소 독도수산연구센터) ;
  • 이동우 (국립수산과학원 자원관리과) ;
  • 최일수 (전남대학교 통계학과) ;
  • 장창익 (부경대학교 해양생산시스템관리학부)
  • Received : 2012.10.23
  • Accepted : 2012.11.25
  • Published : 2012.11.30

Abstract

We developed an age-based spawner-recruit model incorporating environmental variables to forecast stock biomass and recruits of pelagic fish in this study. We applied the model to the Tsushima stock of jack mackerel, which is shared by Korea and Japan. The stock biomass of jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) around Korean waters ranged from 141 thousand metric tons (mt) and 728 thousand mt and recruits ranged from 27 thousand mt to 283 thousand mt. We hind-casted the stock biomass to evaluate the model performance and robustness for the period of 1987~2009. It was found that the model has been useful to forecast stock biomass and recruits for the period of the lifespan of fish species. The model is also capable of forecasting the long-term period, assuming a certain climatic regime.

Keywords

Spawner-recruit model;Biomass;Recruits;Forecast;Jack mackerel;Korea

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국립수산과학원

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