Vulnerability Assessment of Human Health Sector due to Climate Change: Focus on Ozone

기후변화에 따른 보건 분야의 취약성 평가: O3을 중심으로

  • Received : 2011.08.10
  • Accepted : 2011.12.27
  • Published : 2012.02.29


Adaptation of climate change is necessary to avoid unexpected impacts of climate change caused by human activities. Vulnerability refers to the degree to which system cannot cope with impacts of climate change, encompassing physical, social and economic aspects. Therefore the quantification of climate change impacts and its vulnerability is needed to identify vulnerable regions and to setup the proper strategies for adaptation. In this study, climate change vulnerability is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Also, we identified regions vulnerable to ozone due to climate change in Korea using developed proxy variables of vulnerability of regional level. 18 proxy variables are selected through delphi survey to assess vulnerability over human health sector for ozone concentration change due to climate change. Also, we estimate the weighting score of proxy variables from delphi survey. The results showed that the local regions with higher vulnerability index in the sector of human health are Seoul and Daegu, whereas regions with lower one are Jeollanam-do, Gyeonggi-do, Gwangju, Busan, Daejeon, and Gangwon-do. The regions of high level vulnerability are mainly caused by their high ozone exposure. We also assessed future vulnerability according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1FI, A1T, A1B, B2, and B1 scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2100s. The results showed that vulnerability increased in all scenarios due to increased ozone concentrations. Especially vulnerability index is increased by approximately 2 times in A1FI scenarios in the 2020s. This study could support regionally adjusted adaptation polices and the quantitative background of policy priority as providing the information on the regional vulnerability of ozone due to climate change in Korea.


Climate change vulnerability;Ozone;Proxy variables;Human health


  1. 국가통계포털(2010)
  2. 건강보험관리공단 (2008) 2008년 건강보험 통계분석 자료집.
  3. 국립환경과학원 (2010) 기후변화 대기질 취약성 평가를 위한 델파이 조사.
  4. 국토지리정보원(2008) 국토조사연감(상).(하).
  5. 한성현, 박재성, 서승희, 윤지은, 지선하 (2005) 한국 도시의 만성호흡기 질환 이환율에 영향을 주는 요인, 한국인구학, 28(2), 205-217.
  6. 환경부(2009) 대기오염측정망 설치.운영지침.
  7. Anderson, H.R., R.G. Derwent, and J. Stedman (2001) Air pollution and climate change, Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK, Department of Health, London, 193-217.
  8. Bae, H., J. Ha, A.K. Lee, and J. Park (2008) Age Dependencies in Air Pollution-associated Asthma Hospitalization, Journal of Environmental Health Sciences, 34(2), 124-130. (in Korean with English abstract)
  9. Bell, M.L., F. Dominici, and J.M. Samet (2005) Ameta-analysis of time-series studies of ozone and mortality with comparison to the national morbidity, mortality and air pollution study, Epidemiology, 16, 436-445.
  10. Bell, M.L., R.D. Peng, and F. Dominici (2006) The exposureresponse curve for ozone and risk of mortality and the adequacy of current ozone regulations. Environmental Health Perspectives, 114, 532-536.
  11. Bey, I., D.J. Jacob, R.M. Yantosca, J.A. Logan, B.D. Field, A. M. Fiore, Q. Li, H.Y. Liu, L.J. Michley, and M.G. Schultz (2001) Global modeling of tropospheric chemistry with assimilated meteorology: Model description and evaluation, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(D19), 23073-23095.
  12. Brooks, N. and W.N. Adger (2003) Country level risk measures of climate-related natural disasters and implications for adaptation to climate change, Working paper 26, Tyndall Centre for Climate Research, Norwich, University of East Anglia.
  13. Brooks, N., W.N. Adger, and P.M. Kelly (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation, Global Environmental Change, 15, 151-163.
  14. Byun, D. and J.K.S. Ching (1999) Science Algorithms of the EPA Model-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System, United States Environmental Protection Agency Rep. EPA-600/R-99/030, 727pp.
  15. Choi, H.A., W.K. Lee, H.B. Kwak, S.H. Choi, J.G. Byun, S.J. Yoo, and G. Cui (2009) Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Based on Spatio-Temporal Information, Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society, 11(3), 63-69. (in Korean with English abstract)
  16. Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magata Rueda, L. Mearns, C.G. Menundez, J. Rvisvnen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr, and P. Whetton (2007) Regional Climate Projections, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
  17. Collins, W.D., C.M. Bitz, M.L. Blackmon, G.B. Bonan, C.S. Bretherton, J.A. Carton, P. Chang, S.C. Doney, J.J. Hack, T.B. Henderson, J.T. Kiehl, W.G. Large, D.S. McKenna, B.D. Santer, and R.D. Smith (2006) The community climate system model version 3(CCSM3), Journal of Climate, 19, 2122-2143.
  18. Jacob, D.J. and D.A. Winner (2009) Effect of climate change on air quality, Atmospheric Environment, 43, 51-63.
  19. Cutter, S.L., B.J. Boruff, and W.L. Shirley (2003) Social vulnerability to Environmental Hazards, Social Science Quarterly, 84, 242-261.
  20. Dawson, R.J., J.W. Hall, and P.D. Bate (2005) Quantified analysis of the probability of flooding in the Thames estuary under the imaginable worst-case sea level rise scenario, Water Resources Development, 21(4), 577-591.
  21. Dominici, F., A. McDermott, M. Daniels, S.L. Zeger, and J.M. Samet (2005) Revised analyses of the national morbidity, mortality, and air pollution study: mortality among residents of 90 cities. Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. Part A, 68(13-14), 1071-1092.
  22. Downing, T.E., M.J. Watts, and H.G. Bohle (1995) Climate change and food insecurity: Toward a sociology and geography of vulnerability, Climate Change and World Food Security, Berlin, Springer, pp.183-206.
  23. Fussel, H.-M. (2009) Review and quantitative analysis of indices of climate change exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and impacts, Devlopment and climate change-background note.
  24. Grell, G.A., J. Dudhia, and D.R. Stauffer (1995) A Description of the Fifth-Generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale Model (MM5), NCAR Technical Note. NCAR/TN-398+STR, National center for atmospheric research, 122pp.
  25. Gryparis, A., B. Forsberg, K. Katsouyanni, A. Analitis, G. Touloumi, J. Schwartz, E. Samoli, S. Medina, H.R. Anderson, E.M. Niciu, H.E. Wichmann, B. Kriz, M. Kosnik, J. Skorkovsky, J.M. Vonk, and Z. Dortbudak (2004) Acute effects of ozone on mortality from the "Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach" project. American Journal of Respiratory Critical Care Medicine, 170, 1080-1087.
  26. Hogrefe, C., B. Lynn, K. Civerolo, J.-Y. Ku, J. Rosenthal, C. Rosenzweig, R. Goldberg, S. Gaffin, K. Knowlton, and P.L. Kinney (2004) Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions, Jouranl of Geophysical Research, 109, D22301.
  27. IPCC (1996) Climate Change 1995 : The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  28. IPCC (2000) Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  29. IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001 : Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Third Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  30. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007 : Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  31. Ito, K., S.F. De Leon, and M. Lippmann (2005) Associations between ozone and daily mortality : analysis and meta-analysis. Epidemiology, 16, 446-457.
  32. Jerrett, M., R.T. Burnett, C.A. Pope, K. Ito, G. Thurston, D. Krewski, Y. Shi, E. Calle, and M. Thun (2009) Long-term ozone exposure and mortality, The New England Journal of Medicine, 360, 1085-1095.
  33. Ju, Y.S. and S.H. Cho (2001) Effect of air pollution on emergency room visits for asthma: a time series analysis, Korean Journal of Preventive Medicine, 34(1), 61-72. (in Korean with English abstract)
  34. KEI (2008) Development and application of a climate change vulnerability index, KEI/2008/RE-05. (in Korean with English abstract)
  35. KEI (2010) Climate Change and Air Pollution Effects on Environmentally Related Disease - Interactive Effects of Temperature and Ozone on Environmentally Related Disease, KEI/2010/RE-06. (in Korean with English abstract)
  36. Koht, R. (2005) Handbook for assesment of foliar ozone injury on vegetation in the national parks, USA National Park Service,,79.
  37. Kwon, H.J. and S.H. Cho (1999) Air pollution and daily mortality in Seoul, Korean Journal of Preventive Medicine, 32(2), 191-199. (in Korean with English abstract)
  38. Levy, J.I., S.M. Chemerynski, and J.A. Sarnat (2005) Ozone exposure and mortality: and empiric bayes metaregression analysis, Epidemiology, 16, 458-468.
  39. Lonergan, S.C., K. Gustavson, and M. Harrower (1999) Mapping human insecurity, Environmental Change, Adaptation and Security, 397-413.
  40. Meleux, F., F. Solmon, and F. Giorgi (2007) Increase in European summer ozone amounts due to climate change, Atmospheric Environment, 41, 7577-7587.
  41. Moss, R.H., A.L. Brenkert, and E.L. Malone (2001) Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Quantitative Approach, Technical Report PNNL-SA-33642.
  42. NIER (2008) Development and operation of the integrated system on climate and air quality (I), NIER NO. 2008-59-1009. (in Korean with English abstract)
  43. NIER (2009) Development and operation of the integrated system on climate and air quality (II), NIER NO. 2009-34-1090. (in Korean with English abstract)
  44. NIER (2010) Development and operation of the integrated system on climate and air quality (III), NIER NO. 2010-21-1196. (in Korean with English abstract)
  45. Parkins, J.R. and N.A. MacKendrick (2007) Assessing community vulnerability: A study of the mountain pine outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, Global Environmental Change, 17, 460-471.
  46. Shim, K.M., K.A. Roh, K.H. So, G.Y. Kim, H.C. Jeong, and D.B. Lee (2010) Assessing impacts of global warming on rice growth and production in Korea, Climate Change Research, 1(2), 121-131. (in Korean with English abstract)
  47. Sullivan, C. and J. Meigh (2005) Targeting attention on local vulnerabilityes using an integrated index approach : The example of the climate vulnerability index, Water Science & Technology, 15(5), 69-78.
  48. UNDP(2005) Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change : Developing strategies, policies, and measures, Cambridge University Press, USA.
  49. USEPA (1996) Air quality criteria for ozone and other photochemical oxidants, EPA-600/P-93/004 a,b,cF., National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
  50. USEPA (1999) A user manual for the EPA third-generation air quality modeling system (Model-3 Version 3.0), EPA-600/R-99/055, Research Triangle Park, NC.
  51. Wall, E. and K. Marzall (2006) Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change in Canadian Rural Communities, Local Environment, 11(4), 373-397.

Cited by

  1. The Impact of Environmental Health Factors on Extreme-heat Vulnerability Assessment in a Metropolitan City vol.39, pp.6, 2013,
  2. in Busan vol.40, pp.5, 2014,