Comparison of Methods for the Analysis Percentile of Seismic Hazards

지진재해도의 백분위수 분석 방법 비교

  • 이현미 (한국원자력연구원 종합안전평가부) ;
  • 서정문 (한국원자력연구원 종합안전평가부) ;
  • 김민규 (한국원자력연구원 종합안전평가부) ;
  • 최인길 (한국원자력연구원 종합안전평가부)
  • Received : 2010.10.12
  • Accepted : 2011.01.04
  • Published : 2011.04.30


Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), which can effectively apply inevitable uncertainties in seismic data, considers a number of seismotectonic models and attenuation equations. The calculated hazard by PSHA is generally a value dependent on peak ground acceleration (PGA) and expresses the value as an annual exceedance probability. To represent the uncertainty range of a hazard which has occurred using various seismic data, a hazard curve figure shows both a mean curve and percentile curves (15, 50, and 85). The percentile performs an important role in that it indicates the uncertainty range of the calculated hazard, could be calculated using various methods by the relation of the weight and hazard. This study using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, the maximum likelihood method, and the moment method, has calculated the percentile of the computed hazard by PSHA on the Shinuljin 1, 2 site. The calculated percentile using the weight accumulation method, the weighted hazard method, and the maximum likelihood method, have similar trends and represent the range of all computed hazards by PSHA. The calculated percentile using the moment method effectively showed the range of hazards at the source which includes a site. This study suggests the moment method as effective percentile calculation method considering the almost same mean hazard for the seismotectonic model and a source which includes a site.


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