Projected Climate Change Impact on Surface Water Temperature in Korea

기후변화에 따른 지표수의 수온 영향평가

  • Ahn, Jong Ho (Division of Water and Environment, Korea Environment Institute) ;
  • Han, Dae Ho (Division of Water and Environment, Korea Environment Institute)
  • 안종호 (한국환경정책.평가연구원 물순환연구실) ;
  • 한대호 (한국환경정책.평가연구원 물순환연구실)
  • Received : 2009.10.19
  • Accepted : 2009.12.14
  • Published : 2010.01.30

Abstract

Global human activities associated with the use of fossil fuels have aggravated climate change, increasing air temperature. Consequently, climate change has the potential to alter surface water temperature with significant impacts on biogeochemical cycling and ecosystems in natural water body. In this study, we examined temporal trends on historical records of surface water temperature, and investigated the air temperature/water temperature relationship and the potential water temperature change from an air temperature scenario developed with regional climate model. Although the temporal trends of water temperature are highly variable site-by-site, surface water temperature was highly dependent on air temperature, and has increased significantly in some sub-watersheds over the last two decades. The results presented here demonstrate that water temperature changes are expected to be slightly higher in river system than reservoir systems and more significant during winter than summer for both river and reservoir system. Projected change of surface water temperature will likely increase $1.06^{\circ}C$ for rivers and $0.95^{\circ}C$ for reservoirs during the period 2008 to 2050. Given the potential climatic changes, every $1^{\circ}C$ increase in water temperature could cause dissolved oxygen levels to fall every 0.206 ppm.

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 한국환경정책.평가연구원

References

  1. 국립기상연구소(2009). 기후변화 이해하기 II.
  2. 김병식, 김보경(2007). 기후변화 및 변동이 극한 강우 및 I-D-F 분석에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구. 수자원학회.
  3. 박선기, 감부식, 최정현, 박성제(2008). 수자원/수질 부분 기후변화 영향평가 및 적응대책 인벤토리 발굴 연구(I). 국립환경과학원.
  4. 배덕효, 권원태, 김광섭, 장희준, 김성준, 이재응(2007). 기후변화에 의한 수자원 영향평가 체계 구축. 과학기술부.
  5. 수질개선기획단(2004). 물관리정보 표준.
  6. 이용준, 박종윤, 박민지, 김성준(2008a). SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후변화 및 토지이용 변화에 따른 안성천 유역 수문 - 수질 변화 분석 (I). 대한토목학회지, 28(6b), pp. 653-663.
  7. 이용준, 안소라, 강부식, 김성준(2008b). SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후변화 및 토지이용 변화에 따른 안성천 유역 수문 - 수질 변화 분석 (II). 대한토목학회지, 28(6b), pp. 665-673.
  8. 예령, 정세웅, 이흥수, 윤성완, 정희영(2009). SWAT 모형을 이용한 대청댐 유역의 기후인자에 따른 유출 및 유사량 민감도 평가. 수질보전 한국물환경학회지, 25(1), pp. 7-17.
  9. 한수희, 유가영, 김상단(2009). 식생 물 부족 지수의 추계학적 거동과 기후변화가 그에 미치는 영향. 수질보전 한국물환경학회지, 25(4), pp. 507-514.
  10. 환경부(2008). 수질측정망 운영계획.
  11. Boeder, M. and Chang, H. (2008). Multi-scale analysis of oxygen demand trends in an urbanizing Oregon watershed. J. Environ. Manage., 87, pp. 567-581. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.12.009
  12. Gleick, P. H. et al. (2000). Water: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. A Report of the National Water Assessment Group, U.S. Global Change Research , Program.
  13. Hammond, D. and Pryce, A. R. (2007). Climate Change Impacts and Water Temperature. Environment Agency. Science Report SC0600017SR.
  14. Helsel, D. R., Mueller, D. K., and Slack, J. R. (1980). Computer Program for the Kendall Family of Trend Tests. Scientific Investifgation Report 2005-5275, U.S. Geological Survey.
  15. Hirsch, R. M., Slack, J. R., and Smith, R. A. (1982). Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resources Research, 18, pp. 107-121. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i001p00107
  16. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2008). Climate change and water, IPCC technical paper IV.
  17. Komatsu, E., Fukushima, T., and Hamsawa, H. (2007). A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate chang on lake waler quality.
  18. Langan, S. J., Johnston, L., Donaghy, M. J., Youngson, A. F., Hay, D. W., and Soulsby, C. (2001). Variation in river water temperatures in an upland steam over a 30-year period, the Science of the Total Environment, 265, pp. 195-207. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-9697(00)00659-8
  19. Lettenmaier, D. P., Hooper, E. R., Wagoner, C., and Faris, K. B. (1991). Trends in stream quality in the continental United States, 1978-1987. Water Resour. Res., 27, pp. 327-339. https://doi.org/10.1029/90WR02140
  20. Mohseni, O., Stefan, H. G., and Erickson, T. R. (1998). A Non-linear Regression Model for Weekly Stream Temperatures. Water Resour. Res., 34, pp. 2685-2692. https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877
  21. Moore, M. V., Pace, M. L., Mather, J. R., Murdoch, P. S., Howarth, R. W., Folt, C. L., Chen, C. Y., Hemond, H. F., Flebbe, P. A., and Driscoll, C. T. (1997). Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystem of the New England/Mid.Atlantic Region. Hydrolgogical Processes,11, pp. 925-947.
  22. Morrill, J. C., Bales, R. C., and Conklin, M. H. (2005). Estimating steam temperature from air temperarure: implications for future water quality. Journal of Environmental Engineering, 131, pp. 139-146. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2005)131:1(139)
  23. Murdoch, P. J., Baron, J. S., and Miller, T. L. (2000). Potential effects of climate change on surface-water quality in North America. Journal of The American Water Resources Association, 36, pp. 347-366. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2000.tb04273.x
  24. Pilgrim, J. M., Fang, X., and Stefan, H. G. (1998). Stream temperaturt correlations with air temperatures in minnesota: implications for climate warning. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34, pp. 1109-1121. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb04158.x
  25. Stefan, H. G., and Georgiou, E. F. (2001). Vulnerability of Minnesota water resources and ecosystems to climate variability and change: a call for focused research and assessment.
  26. The Greal Lakes Water Quality Board of the International Joint Commission (2003). Climate change and water quality in the: Great Lakes Basins.
  27. Vitousek, P. M., Mooney, H. A., Lubchenco, J., and Melillo, J. M. ( 1997). Human domination of Earth's ecosystems. Science, 277, pp. 494-499. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.277.5325.494
  28. Wade, A. J., Durand, P., Beaujouan, V., Wessel, W. W., Raat, K. J., Whitehead. P. G., Butterfield, D., Rankinen, K., and Lepisto, A. (2002). A nitrogen model for European catch-ments: INCA, new model structure and equations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 6, pp. 559-582. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-6-559-2002
  29. Webb, B. W., Hannah, D. M., Moort, R. D., Brown, L. E., and Nobilis, F. (2008). Recent advances in stream and river temperature research. Hydrological Processes, 21, pp. 902-918.
  30. Whitehead, P. G., Wade, A. J., and Butterfield, D. (2008). Potential impacts of climate change on water quality in six UK rivers. BHS 10th national hydrology symposium, Exeter.
  31. Zipper, C. E., Holtzman, G. I., Darken, P. F., Gildea, J. J., and Stewarl, R. E. (2002). Virginia USA water quality, 1978 to 1995: Regional interpretation. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 38. pp. 789-802. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2002.tb00997.x