Changes of Flowering Time in the Weather Flora in Susan Using the Time Series Analysis

시계열 분석을 이용한 부산지역 계절식물의 개화시기 변화

  • Choi, Chul-Mann (Climate Change & Agroecology Division, National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA) ;
  • Moon, Sung-Gi (Department of Biology, Kyungsung University)
  • 최철만 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원 기후변화생태과) ;
  • 문성기 (경성대학교 이과대학 생물학과)
  • Published : 2009.04.30


To examine the trend on the flowering time in some weather flora including Prunus serrulata var. spontanea, Cosmos bipinnatus, and Robinia pseudo-acacia in Busan, the changes in time series and rate of flowering time of plants were analyzed using the method of time series analysis. According to the correlation between the flowering time and the temperature, changing pattern of flowering time was very similar to the pattern of the temperature, and change rate was gradually risen up as time goes on. Especially, the change rate of flowering time in C. bipinnatus was 0.487 day/year and showed the highest value. In flowering date in 2007, the difference was one day between measurement value and prediction value in C. bipinnatus and R. pseudo-acacia, whereas the difference was 8 days in P. mume showing great difference compared to other plants. Flowering time was highly related with temperature of February and March in the weather flora except for P. mume, R. pseudo-acacia and C. bipinnatus. In most plants, flowering time was highly related with a daily average temperature. However, the correlation between flowering time and a daily minimum temperature was the highest in Rhododendron mucronulatum and P. persica, otherwise the correlation between flowering time and a daily maximum temperature was the highest in Pyrus sp.


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