DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Failing Prediction Models of KOSDADQ Firms by using of Logistic Regression

로지스틱회귀분석을 이용한 코스닥기업의 부실예측모형 연구

  • Published : 2009.03.28

Abstract

The bankruptcy in Korea affects to all stakeholder of firms. Companies listed in KOSDAQ have high technology but the possibilities for success of business are low. The purpose of this study is to develop and to applicate falling prediction model of KOSDAQ firms using logistic regression analysis. The results of this study are as follows. First, the accuracy of classification of the models by years was between 76.5% and 77.5%, and that of the mean model was between 70.6% and 83.4%. Among the models, the mean model of -three years, -two years, and -one year was highest in the accuracy of classification (83.4%). Second, when the mean model of -three year, -two years, and -one years, the highest model in accuracy of classification, was selected to be verified on validation samples, the accuracy of prediction increased from -three years to -one year (71.7% for -three years, 75.0% for -two years, 90.0% for -one year). In indicating the superiority of developed model.

Keywords

KOSDAQ Firms;Firm Failing;Logistic Regression;Accuracy of Dlassification;Accuracy of Prediction

References

  1. B. Lev, 'inancial Statrment Analysis: A New Approach," Prentice Hall, Inc., Eaglewood Cliffs, N.J., p.133, 1974.
  2. 이만우, 김양호, "부가가치정보를 이용한 기업부실예측", 경영총론 제39집, 고려대학교 경영대학, pp.253-256, 1995.
  3. 정준수, "기업도산 예측 모델에 관한 연구", 경영총론 제26집, 고려대학교 경영대학, pp.198-201, 1984.
  4. http://www.ksda.or.kr/ebook/default.htm
  5. J. S. Ohlson, 'inancial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research,(Spring), pp.109-131, 1980.
  6. 신동령, "부실기업의 재무적 특징과 부실예측모형에 관한 연구","회계학정보연구", 제23권, 제2호, pp.137-185, 2005.
  7. 남주하, "기업집단의 부실화 원인과 부도예측모형 분석","서강경제논집", 제29권, 제1호, pp.175-205, 2000.
  8. 이계원, "회계정보에 의한 기업부실예측과 시장반응", "회계학연구", 제26호, pp.50-76, 1993.
  9. E. I. Altman, 'inancial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, pp.589-609, 1968(9).
  10. 남주하, "기업의 부도원인과 부도예측모형 분석:IMF 전후 기간을 중심으로", "금융연구", 제12권, 제2호, pp.77-107, 1998.