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Frostfall Forecasting in the Naju Pear Production Area Based on Discriminant Analysis of Climatic Data

기후자료 판별분석에 근거한 나주 배 생산지 서리발생 예측

  • 한점화 (국립원예특작과학원 배시험장) ;
  • 최장전 (국립원예특작과학원 배시험장) ;
  • 정유란 (경희대학교 생태시스템공학과) ;
  • 조광식 (국립원예특작과학원 배시험장) ;
  • 천종필 (충남대학교 식물자원학부 원예학)
  • Published : 2009.12.30

Abstract

In order to predict frostfall, nocturnal cooling rate and air temperature changes were analyzed on days with and without frost when the maximum temperature was lower than $20^{\circ}C$. In general, the nocturnal cooling rates on frosty days were higher than those on non-frosty days. The cooling rates averaged from 19:00 to 24:00 on frosty and non-frosty days were $1.7^{\circ}Ch^{-1}$ and $0.7^{\circ}Ch^{-1}$ respectively. As expected, the nocturnal temperature on frosty days was lower than that on non-frosty days. Especially, the midnight air temperature averaged about $3.9{\pm}1.5^{\circ}C$ on frosty days, which was lower than that on non-frosty days (i.e., $10.1{\pm}2.9^{\circ}C$). The discriminant analysis using three independent variables (i.e., total cloud amount, air temperature at 24:00, and 5-day rainfall amount) successfully classified the presence of frost with 87% accuracy.

Keywords

Frost;Cooling rate;Nocturnal temperature;Discriminant analysis;Naju pear

References

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  2. Spatiotemporal variability of the latest frosts in Korean Peninsula and causes of atmospheric circulation vol.128, pp.5, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0439-z
  3. Improving Usage of the Korea Meteorological Administration's Digital Forecasts in Agriculture: I. Correction for Local Temperature under the Inversion Condition vol.15, pp.2, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2013.15.2.076