DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Development of a Paddy Field Estimation Model Considering Shift-share Effects

변화할당효과를 고려한 논 면적 예측 모형의 개발

  • 장우석 (공주대학교 산업과학대학 지역건설공학 대학원) ;
  • 정남수 (공주대학교 산업과학대학 지역건설공학) ;
  • 박기욱 (한국농촌공사 농어촌연구원)
  • Published : 2008.05.31

Abstract

Estimations of paddy field area are important for agricultural water supply planning. Especially these estimations have to be excused by drainage basin. In this research, we developed a paddy field estimation model considering shift-share effects such as national growing, structural, local effects. National growing effects are estimated by adopting the result of KREI-ASMO model which predict farm land area in national level. Paddy field structural effects are estimated using statistical data about farmhouse numbers and cultivation areas. Local allocation effects are calculated by differences of estimations and real data. The results using data from 1998 to 2003 show that developed model estimates 2006 paddy field areas in each province in 5% error and is applicable to predict future change of paddy field.

References

  1. Hwang, M. I., 1997, Land Use Change Detection for Monitoring Urbanization by Using Landsat Data in the Capital Region, Korea, Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 32(3), pp. 335-339
  2. Joo, Y. J., SooHong, P., 2003, Implementation of a Statistical Model for Land Use Change Prediction Using Temporal Satellite Imagery, Geographical Research, 37(4), pp. 379-384
  3. 통계청, 2007, 경지 면적 통계, 통계청
  4. 김명환, 이대섭, 김태훈, 김배성, 조영수, 이용호, 윤태연, 2006, 농업부문 전망모형 KREI-ASMO 2006 보완 및 운용에 관한 연구, 농촌경제연구 원
  5. Jung, N. S., JeongJae, L., Paul H. H., DaeSik, K., HanJoong, K., 2004, Development of an Areal Elderly Migration Model Considering Spatial Interaction, ASCE Jounral of Urban Planning and Development, 130(4), pp. 175-183 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2004)130:4(175)
  6. 김경덕, 김태훈, 전상곤, 이정환, 1999, 농업전망 시뮬레이션모형 KREI-ASMO99, 농촌경제연구원
  7. 윤대식, 윤성순, 1998, 도시모형론, 홍익사
  8. 대한국토.도시계획학회, 2000, 국토․지역계획 론, 보성각
  9. 이정환, 1998, 우리나라의 식량수급 문제와 대 응전략, 지역사회영양학회지, 3(3), pp. 471-473
  10. Ahn, S. M., JinMin, S., DongHoon, S., KyooSeock, L., 2002, Urbal Land Use Change Detection over Daejon Metroplitan Area using Bi-Temporal Landsat TM image with the Integration of GIS, Journal of environmental impact assessment, 11(4), pp. 241-245
  11. 김정부, 1978, Markov Chain에 의한 경지면적 변동 추정, 농촌경제, 1(3), pp. 136-140