Risk Assessment for the Failure of an Arch Bridge System Based upon Response Surface Method(I): Component Reliability

응답면 기법에 의한 아치교량 시스템의 붕괴 위험성평가(I): 요소신뢰성

  • Cho, Tae-Jun (Korea Rail Network Authoroty, KR Technical Research Institute) ;
  • Bang, Myung-Seok (Department of Safety Engineering, Cheongju University)
  • 조태준 (한국철도시설공단 KR 기술연구소) ;
  • 방명석 (충주대학교 안전공학과)
  • Published : 2006.12.31

Abstract

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method(RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is changed into parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method.

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