A Validity Verification of Human Error Probability using a Fuzzy Model

퍼지모델을 이용한 인적오류확률의 타당성 검증

  • Jang, Tong-Il (Human Factors Research Team, GNP System) ;
  • Lee, Yong-Hee (I&C.Human Factors Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) ;
  • Lim, Hyeon-Kyo (Department of Safety Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
  • 장통일 ((주)지엔피시스템) ;
  • 이용희 (한국원자력연구소 계측제어.인간공학연구부) ;
  • 임현교 (충북대학교 안전공학과)
  • Published : 2006.06.30


Quantification of error possibility, in an HRA process, should be performed so that the result of the qualitative analysis can be utilized in other areas in conjunction with overall safety estimation results. And also, the quantification is an essential process to analyze the error possibility in detail and to obtain countermeasures for the errors through screening procedures. In previous studies for the quantification of error possibility, nominal values were assigned by the experts' judgements and utilized as corresponding probabilities. The values assigned by experts' experiences and judgements, however, require verifications on their reliability. In this study, the validity of new error possibility values in new MCR design was verified by using the Onisawa's model which utilizes fuzzy linguistic values to estimate human error probabilities. With the model of error probabilities are represented as analyst's estimations and natural language expression instead of numerical values. As results, the experts' estimation values about error probabilities are well agreed to the existing error probability estimation model. Thus, it was concluded that the occurrence probabilities of errors derived from the human error analysis process can be assessed by nominal values suggested in the previous studies. It is also expected that our analysis method can supplement the conventional HRA method because the nominal values are based on the consideration of various influencing factors such as PSFs.


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