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Improvement of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction System Using Optimal Linear Correction

최적선형보정을 이용한 앙상블 유량예측 시스템의 개선

  • Jeong, Dae-Il (School of Civil, Urban & Geosystem Engrg., Seoul National Univ.) ;
  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung (School of Civil, Urban & Geosystem Engrg., Seoul National Univ.) ;
  • Kim, Young-Oh (School of Civil, Urban & Geosystem Engrg., Seoul National Univ.)
  • 정대일 (서울대학교 지구환경시스템공학부) ;
  • 이재경 (서울대학교 지구환경시스템공학부) ;
  • 김영오 (서울대학교 지구환경시스템공학부)
  • Published : 2005.06.01

Abstract

A monthly Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system was developed by applying a daily rainfall-runoff model known as the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) model to the Han, Nakdong, and Seomjin River basins in Korea. This study first assesses the accuracy of the averaged monthly runoffs simulated by SSARR for the 3 basins and proposes some improvements. The study found that the SSARR modeling of the Han and Nakdong River basins tended to significantly underestimate the actual runoff levels and the modeling of the Seomjin River basinshowed a large error variance. However, by implementing optimal linear correction (OLC), the accuracy of the SSARR model was considerably improved in predicting averaged monthly runoffs of the Han and Nakdong River basins. This improvement was not seen in the modeling of the Seomjin River basin. In addition, the ESP system was applied to forecast probabilistic runoff forecasts one month in advance for the 3 river basins from 1998 to 2003. Considerably improvement was also achieved with OLC in probabilistic forecasting accuracy for the Han and Nakdong River basins, but not in that of the Seomjin River basin.

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