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Study on Demand Estimation of Agricultural Machinery by Using Logistic Curve Function and Markov Chain Model

로지스틱함수법 및 Markov 전이모형법을 이용한 농업기계의 수요예측에 관한 연구

  • Published : 2004.10.01

Abstract

This study was performed to estimate mid and long term demands of a tractor, a rice transplanter, a combine and a grain dryer by using logistic curve function and Markov chain model. Field survey was done to decide some parameters far logistic curve function and Markov chain model. Ceiling values of tractor and combine fer logistic curve function analysis were 209,280 and 85,607 respectively. Based on logistic curve function analysis, total number of tractors increased slightly during the period analysed. New demand for combine was found to be zero. Markov chain analysis was carried out with 2 scenarios. With the scenario 1(rice price $10\%$ down and current supporting policy by government), new demand for tractor was decreased gradually up to 700 unit in the year 2012. For combine, new demand was zero. Regardless of scenarios, the replacement demand was increased slightly after 2003. After then, the replacement demand is decreased after the certain time. Two analysis of logistic owe function and Markov chain model showed the similar trend in increase and decrease for total number of tractors and combines. However, the difference in numbers of tractors and combines between the results from 2 analysis got bigger as the time passed.

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Cited by

  1. Forecasting Demand of Agricultural Tractor, Riding Type Rice Transplanter and Combine Harvester by using an ARIMA Model vol.38, pp.1, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5307/JBE.2013.38.1.009