The Analysis of Forest Successional Trend by Species Replacement Model in the Natural Forest

천연림의 수종 대치 작용 모델에 의한 산림천이 경향 분석

  • 김지홍 (강원대학교 산림과학대학 산림경영조경학부)
  • Published : 2003.12.01


The successional status and potential natural vegetation were examined in the natural deciduous forest in Mt. Chombong area. The examination was based on the subsequent process of generation replacement by understory saplings for the dominant canopy trees within 106 20mx20m square sample plots. The transition matrix model, which was modified from mathematical theory of Markov chain, was employed to analyze the successional status of the study forest. The model suggests that study forest is still seral, and it is considered to be more than 500 years away from the steady state or climax in terms of species composition. The simulations predict a remarkable decrease in the proportion of species composition of the present dominant Quercus mongolica and Kalopanax pictus from current 42.6% and 8.1% to less than 13.3% and 0.5%, respectively, at the steady state. On the contrary, the proportions of Abies holophylla, Acer mono, Fraxinus mandshurica, Tilia amurensis, and Acer pseudo-sieboldianum will increase at the steady state. The change of predicted composition ratio was generally coincide with the result of tolerance index to be compared with the study model. The hypothesis and sensitivity of the model were also discussed to evaluate the applicability to the real situation. The overall results indicated that the present dynamics of the forest must reflect the seral state due to previous disturbance mainly by human related interference.