A Model for Seismic Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Transmission Network System

지진 재해에 대한 전력 송전 네트워크 시스템의 신뢰성 평가 모형

  • 고현무 (서울대학교 지구환경시스템공학부) ;
  • 김영호 (서울대학교 지구환경시스템공학부) ;
  • 박원석 (서울대학교 지구환경시스템공학부)
  • Published : 2003.04.01


A technique for the seismic reliability evaluation of electric power transmission network system(EPTS) was developed to evaluate reliability indices corresponding to the whole network system and to each node within. A network model with nodes and links for EPTS was established, and a seismic substation fragility curve obtained from seismic fragilities of power system facilities was derived. A point source model, the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter relationship, and earthquake intensity attenuation formula was applied to simulate seismic events. Using Monte-Carlo simulation method, the seismic reliability of EPTS was evaluated and, it appeared that seismic effect on EPTS of korea has to be considered.


seismic reliability;network system;electric power transmission network;Monte-Carlo method


  1. 이기화, Catalog of Korean Instrumental Earthquakes, 2002.
  2. Kawashima, K, Aizawa, K, and Takahashi, K, "Attenuation of peak ground motions and absolute acceleration response spectra,” Report of PWRI, Vol. 166, 1985, p. 106.
  3. 최재석, “송전계통망의 신뢰도 평가”, 전기학회지, 제50권, 제3호, 2001, pp. 15-23.
  4. 이기화, 김정기, “한반도 주요 지체구조별 지진학적 특성” 1999년도 추계 한국지진공학회 학술발표회 논문집, 1999, pp. 64-71.
  5. Goltz, J. D., "The Northridge, California earthquake of January 17, 1994: General reconnaissance report," Technical Report NCEER-94-0005, NCEER, 1994.
  6. Cosentino, P., Ficarra, P., and Luzio, D., "Truncated exponential frequency-magnitude relationship in earthquake statistics," Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol. 67, No.6, 1977, pp. 1615-1623.
  7. Billinton, R. and Li, W., Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods, Plenum Press, 1994.
  8. Hwang, H. H. M. and Huo, J. R., "Seismic fragility analysis of electric substation equipment and structures," Prob. Engng. Mech., Vol. 13, No.2, 1998, pp. 107-116.
  9. Lee, K. and Jung, H. O., "A study of instrumental earthquake data of the Korean Peninsula," Journal of the Geological Society of Korea, Vol. 16, 1980, pp. 32-45.
  10. 이기화, “한반도의 최대지진", 2001년도 춘계한국지진공학회 학술발표회 논문집 , 2001, pp . 41-50.
  11. Kafka, A. L. and Levin,S. Z., "Does the spatial distribution of smaller earthquakes delineate areas where larger earthquakes are likely to occur?," Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol. 90, No.3, 2000, pp. 724-738.
  12. Shinozuka, M., "The Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake of January 17, 1995 performance of lifelines," Technical Report NCEER-95-0015, NCEER, 1995.
  13. Ang, A H. S., Pires, J. A, and Villaverde, R., "A model for the seismic reliability assessment of electric power transmission systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 51, 1996, pp. 7-22.
  14. Baag, C. E., Chang, S. J., Jo, N. D., and Shin, J. S., "Evaluation of seismic hazard in the southern part of Korea," 2nd International Symposium on Seismic Hazards and Ground Motion in the Regional of Moderate Seismicity, 1998, pp. 31-50.
  15. Bath, M, Introduction to Seismology, Birkhauser Verlag, Basel and Stuttgart, 1973.
  16. Vanzi, I., "Seismic reliability of electric power networks : Methodology and application," Structural Safety, Vol. 18, No.4, 1996, pp. 311-327.
  17. 조양희, 박형기, 송영철, 방기성, "송변전기기의 내진 설계기준 제안", 2002년도 추계한국지진공학회 학술발표회 논문집, 2002, pp. 163-170.
  18. 신진수, 강익범, 김근영, “ KSRS 관측자료에 의한 b-의 값 평가", 2002년도 추계 한국지진공학회 학술발표회 논문집 , 2002, pp . 28-34.
  19. 이기화, 조광현, “Sino-Korea Craton에서 최대수평가속도의 감쇠“, 2002년도 추계 한국지진공학회 학술발표회 논문집, 2002, pp. 3-10.
  20. 고현무, 김영호, 박원석, "중약진 지역에서의 전력송전시스템의 지진재해 신뢰성 평가", 2002년도 추계 한국지진공학회 학술발표회 논문집 , 2002, pp. 155-162.