Monte Calro Analysis of Cancer Risk from Airborne Trace Metals

대기중 미량금속의 발암 위해도에 대한 몬테 카를로 분석

  • 장미숙 (충남대학교 환경공학과 대기오염연구실) ;
  • 이진홍 (충남대학교 환경공학과 대기오염연구실)
  • Published : 2002.12.01

Abstract

In order to reflect variability due to exposure factors as well as to assess uncertainty associated with cancer risk posed by airborne trace metals, a Monte Calro analysis has been made in this study. Input parameters for Monte Carlo analysis were developed or adjusted using body weight, lifetime, and exposure frequency of Koreans. Ambient distributions of toxic metals were founded to be lognormal distributions for most of them using goodness-of-fit tests. Thus, the 95% UCL and 95% LCL of carcinogenic metals were estimated by H-statistic method for lognormal distribution, respectively. The results of Monte Carlo analysis of 95% UCL showed that the 95th percentile risks for men and women were 1.2 and 1.1 times higher than an acceptable risk of 10$^{-5}$ , respectively. The probabilities which those risks exceed the acceptable risk were estimated to be 8% and 6%, respectively, while to be 95% and 94%, respectively on the basis of the minimum acceptable risk of 10$^{-6}$ , respectively. Approximately 90% of total cancer risk came from human carcinogens such as arsenic and hexavalent chromium. Therefore, it is necessary to properly manage both arsenic and hexavalent chromium emissions in the study area.

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