Prediction of Evacuation Time for Emergency Planning Zone of Uljin Nuclear Site

울진원전 방사선비상계획구역에 대한 소개시간 예측

  • Jeon, In-Young (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Lee, Jai-Ki (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 전인영 (한양대학교 원자력공학과) ;
  • 이재기 (한양대학교 원자력공학과)
  • Published : 2002.09.30

Abstract

The time for evacuation of residents in emergency planning zone(EPZ) of Uljin nuclear site in case of a radiological emergency was estimated with traffic analysis. Evacuees were classified into 4 groups by considering population density, local jurisdictions, and whether they ate residents or transients. The survey to investigate the behavioral characteristics of the residents was made for 200 households and included a hypothetical scenario explaining the accident situation and questions such as dwelling place, time demand for evacuation preparation transportation means for evacuation, sheltering place, and evacuation direction. The microscopic traffic simulation model, CORSIM, was used to simulate the behavior of evacuating vehicles on networks. The results showed that the evacuation time required for total vehicles to move out from EPZ took longer in the daytime than at night in spite that the delay times at intersections were longer at night than in the daytime. This was analyzed due to the differences of the trip generation time distribution. To validate whether the CORSIM model fan appropriately simulate the congested traffic phenomena assumable in case of emergency, a benchmark study was conducted at an intersection without an actuated traffic signal near Uljin site during the traffic peak-time in the morning. This study indicated that the predicted output by the CORSIM model was in good agreement with the observed data. satisfying the purpose of this study.

References

  1. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 'Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants,' U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG-0654. Rev. 1(1980)
  2. T. Urbanik, A. Desrosiers, M. K. Lindell and C. R. Schuller, 'Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones,' U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-1745(1980)
  3. T. E. Urbanik, J. D. Jamison, 'State of the Art in Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants,' U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-4831(1992)
  4. T. Urbanik II, M. P. Moeller, K. Bames, 'Benchmark Study of the I-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code,' U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-4873(1988)
  5. T. Urbanik II, M. P. Moeller, K. Bames, 'The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Change in Iput Parameters for the I-DYNEV Computer Code,' U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-4874(1988)
  6. T. E. Drabek, 'Disaster Responses within the Tourist Industry,' International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 13(1), 7-23(1995)
  7. J. H. Sorensen. B. M. Vogt, D. S. Mileti, 'Evacuation: An Assessment of Planning and Research,' Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL-6376(1987)
  8. E. J. Baker, 'Hurricane Evacuation Behavior,' International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 9(2), 287-310(1991)
  9. '제41회 울진통계연보' 울진군 (2001)
  10. '울진원전 방사선비상계획서', 울진원전
  11. 'CORSIM User's Manual; Version 5.0,' Federal Highway Administration of U.S. Department of Transportation(2001)
  12. A. K Rathi, 'A Microcomputer Based Traffic Evacuation Modeling System for Emergency Planning Applications', Oak Ridge National Laboratory CONF-0505315(1995)