Application of the Fuzzy Set Theory to Uncertain Parameters in a Countermeasure Model

비상대응모델의 불확실한 변수에 대한 퍼지이론의 적용

  • Published : 1994.08.30


A method for estimating the effectiveness of each protective action against a nuclear accident has been proposed using the fuzzy set theory. In most of the existing countermeasure models in actions under radiological emergencies, the large variety of possible features is simplified by a number of rough assumptions. During this simplification procedure, a lot of information is lost which results in much uncertainty concerning the output of the countermeasure model. Furthermore, different assumptions should be used for different sites to consider the site specific conditions. Tn this study, the diversity of each variable related to protective action has been modelled by the linguistic variable. The effectiveness of sheltering and evacuation has been estimated using the proposed method. The potential advantage of the proposed method is in reducing the loss of information by incorporating the opinions of experts and by introducing the linguistic variables which represent the site specific conditions.